Tag: Betting Expert Fixed Matches

Betting Expert Fixed Matches

Betting Expert Fixed Matches

Ticket Fixed Matches

Ticket Fixed Matches

Ticket Fixed Matches


Date: 03.10.2021 – Day: Sunday

 

League: NORWAY OBOS-ligaen
Match: Aalesund – Ham-Kam

Tip: Over 2.5   Odds: 1.50
Result: 1:1 Lost

 

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Every bettor wants to know the secret how to make ticket fixed matches predictions when betting on football fixed matches. If you are looking for professional punter tips, then you found the right place. The Correct Score bets Fixed Matches won’t be a problem for you anymore after reading this betting guide fixed matches.

 

Introduction

In order to master the art of football prediction tips today, we would need to learn a bit of mathematics, to be more precise, the Poisson Distribution. It is a mathematical concept that helps to outline the possible outcomes converting the historical mean data.

 

How does it work? Let’s find out

First things first

Before you can predict the score, you have to make a couple of additional steps. First of all, we have to find out the average number of goals each team scores. For that, we would need the Attack Strength and Defense Strength data.

 

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This data plays an essential role in our calculations. If our data range would be too long, the results won’t be satisfying, and if too short, it could happen that some data would be beyond our designated rage. You always can get this data from the seasonal statistics of any football fixed matches league/competition.

 

Defence Strength

Good news, you don’t have to do much more calculations here, as they have already been done. All you need to do it reverse the previous results because the goals a home team scores are conceded by the away team and vice versa. Therefore, our results will look the following way:

Ticket Fixed Matches

Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207

Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492

Once again, the Defence Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s averages.

 

Finding value

A couple of things before you can go, it is not enough to know just the most probable outcome. What about the draw scenario? Instead of finding the chances of each draw separate, we can calculate the possibility of a draw occurring regardless of a score.

 

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Of course, by doing so, we are exposing ourselves to the infinite amount of options but how often have you seen a football match that finished at 6:6 or 10:10? We bet you won’t even be able to come up with one right now. The chances of such scores happening are close to zero, therefore we can simply neglect them.

 

In order to find the chance of the draw happening between Team A and Team B, we need to calculate each draw scoreline chances separate and then add them all together. By using the data from the table above, we would get the following result, 0.2472 or 24.72%.

 

Pro Tip: convert this into odds and compare them to the ones your bookmaker has to offer. In our case, the draw odds fixed matches in such a matchup would be 4.05 (61/20). Use this advice to find value.

 

Limited potential

Poisson Distribution is a convenient tool. Unfortunately, it is a simple prediction model, which does not find its application in certain situations. Such things like game status, locker-room environment, coach influence on the player, etc. are beyond the formula’s reach. It also fails to factor in the physical condition of the player, as well as home-field advantage.

 

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The formula is not designed for all of that. Though, it is perfectly suited for lower-ranked leagues/competitions, where it is easier to gain an edge over the bookmaker. You would probably struggle to beat the bookie just by solely using just this distribution method for major league markets as top online bookmakers have far more advanced tools and resources at their disposal.

 

Remember, the odds you find via this method DO NOT include the ticket fixed matches betting margin, which has a huge impact on finding value. We suggest using this technique as a great add-on to your assessment and analysis arsenal. Happy betting!